Strategic Threat Assessment

The Strategic Threat Assessment is designed to help the ROAM community identify and understand emerging or long-term risks to Christians, churches, missionaries, or faith-based operations. Unlike time-sensitive alerts, this report provides a broader analysis of trends, actors, and warning signs that may lead to persecution, displacement, or operational disruption. It enables members to anticipate threats, prepare responses, and protect those carrying out the Great Commission in high-risk areas.

Religion Field on Egyptian National ID Cards Enabling Targeting of Christians

Egypt’s continued inclusion of religion on national ID cards acts as a structural “targeting enabler” that lowers the effort required to identify Christians at routine administrative touch-points and increases the probability of discriminatory outcomes.

Potential Christmas-Period Mass Attacks in Nigeria’s Middle Belt

Reporting indicates heightened concern about imminent, coordinated violence targeting Christian communities in Nigeria’s Middle Belt during the Christmas period, with named at-risk localities in Plateau, Benue, and Kaduna states highlighted as potential objectives.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Owo Church Bombing Testimony and Al-Shabaab TTPs

A protected DSS witness testified in Abuja that the 5 June 2022 attack on St. Francis Catholic Church in Owo involved initial small‐arms fire followed by three explosive devices, with the third blast causing major structural damage and contributing to the killing of more than 40 worshippers during Mass.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Escalating Vandalism and Theft Targeting Churches in Baden‐Württemberg

Theft and vandalism against churches and chapels in Baden‐Württemberg over the past year indicate a sustained and increasingly permissive operating environment for offenders.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Sentencing of 400 Mawozo Leader Joly Germine

The U.S. federal life sentence for alleged 400 Mawozo founder Joly Germine, convicted for orchestrating the 2021 kidnapping of 17 missionaries, is a significant legal victory but only marginally affects Haiti’s gang‐driven security crisis.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Targeting of Orthodox Religious Sites in Greece

Orthodox Christian sites in Greece remained the overwhelmingly dominant targets of attacks on religious property in 2024, accounting for 399 of 412 recorded incidents (96.84%) despite an overall decline from 608 incidents in 2023, according to official data summarized by the General Secretariat for Religions.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Renewed Armed Herdsmen Attacks in Southern Taraba

Renewed armed herdsmen attacks across Southern Taraba have escalated into a sustained campaign of village destruction, mass displacement, and targeted killings in Wukari, Takum, and surrounding areas, with church leaders reporting abandoned parishes, occupied Christian settlements, and systematic assaults.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Recapture and Confessions of Ansaru/IS‐Linked Commander Abdulazeez “Bomboy” Obadaki

The recapture of Ansaru/ISWAP‐linked commander Abdulazeez Obadaki validates long‐standing assessments that Ansaru retained covert capability and cross‐regional networks despite years of perceived degradation.

Strategic Threat Assessment

Strategic Threat Assessment

Religion Field on Egyptian National ID Cards Enabling Targeting of Christians

Potential Christmas-Period Mass Attacks in Nigeria’s Middle Belt

Owo Church Bombing Testimony and Al-Shabaab TTPs

Escalating Vandalism and Theft Targeting Churches in Baden‐Württemberg

Sentencing of 400 Mawozo Leader Joly Germine

Targeting of Orthodox Religious Sites in Greece

Renewed Armed Herdsmen Attacks in Southern Taraba

Recapture and Confessions of Ansaru/IS‐Linked Commander Abdulazeez “Bomboy” Obadaki

FIELD OPS FOR THE FAITHFUL